111 Picks

Matt Riddle vs. Greg Soto

Riddle is one of the many TUF vets I find myself saying “Really? He’s still in the UFC?” I’m not going to rag on him like Jordan Breen does against George Roop. I last remember seeing Riddle fight for the first time against Dante Rivera in the TUF 7 finale. He’s a good wrestler who is on the fourth fight of his career. He’s a lucky SOB for being able to progress in his entire career in the UFC. But don’t think he will last long if he loses to Kurt Pelligrino student Greg Soto. I will plead the fifth on knowing anything about Soto. I think Riddle will have enough wrestling and stand up to grind out a boring decision.

30-27 Riddle

PS Soto and Riddle will probably be starting off the night and with Soto being the local guy I’m stoked to see how those crazy SOBs react to a local boy.

Rousimar Palhares vs. Tomasz Drwal

I just want to start this off by saying I didn’t know Drwal had any other skills other being able to “stand and bang.” ugh. Let’s get rid of that moniker please! That being said. I am tempted to go two different ways in this fight. Drwal has KO power and Palhares has the skill on the ground to submit a lot of people at 185. Palhares couldn’t deal with Dan Henderson power and tried to bait him to the ground the whole fight. It didn’t work and he lost. I see this fight going the exact same way. Drwal will be able to land shots standing and get a takedown or two scoring points and the win.

Drwal Round Three TKO stoppage

Rodney Wallace vs. Jared Hamman
The Sho Nuff Master (I won’t call him by his name ever) shouldn’t be at 205. He’s too short, but he has a incredible build and style. He wants to get his opponents on the ground and either submit them or grind them out. He showed a vastly improved ground game in the 8 man tournanment in Aruba en route to winning the whole damn thing. Jared Hamman is a EliteXC/Strikeforce Challengers guy that will always go for the exciting fight. He lost to up and comer Alexander Gustaffsson in brutal fashion at 105. He’s going to get worked by the clinch game of the Sho Nuff Master most of the fight. Hamman will want to brawl with him but the Sho Nuff Master should be smart enough to avoid and submit him

Sho Nuff by 1st Round Sub

Nate Diaz vs. Rory Markham

Nate’s debut at 170 is against journeyman and owner of one of my favorite Kos ever Rory Markham. Nate went up to 170 after putting on a mediocre performance against Gray Maynard. I thought Nate put a ton of punches on Gray (like his brother) but just didn’t have anything of significant power to win the fight. Nate’s problem at 155 was getting taken down at will by wrestlers. He is willing to fight off his back but if he can’t get the sub, he’s basically screwed. Unfortunately, he will face more of the same at 70. Guys at 170 has great wrestling and can really put it on anyone when they get on top. Nate has nothing to worry about along those lines with Rory. Rory does have heavy hands but Nate has a good chine. I think Nate will drop Rory in the second and get him in a guillotine for the win.

Nate via sub Round Two

Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Brown
Another joining Nate at 170 is BJJ Black Belt Ricardo Almeida. Ricardo in as a 185er and looked rather unimpressive throughout his run there. Now he comes in against a stiff test in the ever improving Matt Brown. Brown looked great against TUF winner James Wilks and is always a guy overlooked by fans and the media. He probably still one of the most underrated guys to come out of TUF. I think Brown can tag Almeida on the feet and won’t get caught up in Almeida’s ground game.

The Immortal 30-27

Kurt Pelligrino vs. Fabricio Camoes

Gatekeeper Kurt Pelligrino goes against Camoes in a fight moved up to the main card. I expect a boring 3rd round decision for Kurt

Batman 29-28

Jim Miller vs. Mark Bocek
Jim Miller has looked great in his last few fights. This however is his first true test against a black belt in Bocek. Bocek is pretty transparent with his gameplan: Get his opponent down on the ground and submit. I think this fight will about scrambles and Miller will win those.

Miler via decision 30-27

Jon Fitch vs. Ben Saunders.
Jake Ellenberger stepped aside so Jon Fitch could take on Ben Saunders. Thiago Alves was found to have a brain irregularity and was pulled. I wish for his speedy recovery. Ben was already prepared to take on a great wrestler and now he just faces a better wrestler with a iron chin. It doesn’t look good for Ben but if he’s able to work the jab and stay off the fence, he could frustrate Fitch with his reach. I will play it safe though and choose Fitch.

Fitch 30-27

Mir vs. Carwin
Carwin has been out for year while Mir has done what is necessary to get the third fight with Brock. I don’t’ care that he has put on 25 extra pounds. I don’t care that he wants Brock to die. The only real question in this fight is about stand up. Carwin has a marginal chin after being almost stopped by Gabriel Gonzaga. Mir’s stand up has come along but hasn’t impressed me since he KO’d a guy with his hands at his waist in Kongo. I think Carwin needs to put pressure on Mir on the feet and try to make this a stand up battle. If he finds angles on the feet, he could pick Mir apart. I don’t think that will happen though and we will see Mir pick up the win.

Mir by 1st round Sub

GSP vs. Hardy
GSP will win this by a double and ground and pound. That’s it. Hardy does have power but GSP isn’t stupid enough to fall into a slug fest. GSP stops Hardy in the 3rd

I’m not going to be long winded just because this is the main event. It’s that damn simple.